Narrative Creatures & Why Facts Need Fiction (Free Edition)
Surf Report, Issue 4
INTRODUCTION
October 25, 2020
Hi everyone! I’m so glad to have you here. What a week.
I’ve been reading up on reading lately, on account of the new book I have coming out soon (You can still lock in the preorder price), and I’ve found that biz/tech communities are just as fanatical about books as trading/investing communities. Entrepreneur Li Jin even cited Jane Eyre on her recent podcast appearance when asked what her most formative book was, a question that has historically elicited more heady non-fiction choices.
I’ve been struck at how little correlation there seems to be between the books people value most and the industry in which they’ve found ways to create or capture value. I’ve also learned that readers of non-fiction still appreciate a good storyteller—someone who pulls them through sections and chapters with some alchemical mix of curiosity, suspense, tension, release, and surprise.
Humans are narrative creatures and best able to apprehend the world through story. We think in stories, as the best memorizers can affirm. People will even conjure their own stories and explanations in the absence of one (see world mythology, astrology, & stock charts), and doing so is perfectly natural. Perfectly human.
It got me thinking: are the cold hard facts of traditional business and investing writing too hard and cold? Is there an opportunity to wrap more of these icy truth shards with something warmer and softer from time to time, to craft them into a narrative people feel more inclined to spend time with and absorb? After all, you can’t judge a book by its cover, but it’s often the cover that gets a book into your home in the first place.
Thanks again for coming along with me on this. Let’s go.
—Mark
“The more one understands one's own reactions the less one is at their mercy.” —William Empson
Breaking 🌊
The U.S. Department of Justice is suing Google. It’s an antitrust suit hinging on the fact that “Google effectively controls or owns about 80% of the search queries in the U.S., and that competitors have no real chance to challenge the company.” So What?: The larger question here is around whether using Google is a choice or not. Alphabet (Google’s parent company) pays billions of dollars to Apple to maintain default search engine status, which in theory wouldn’t be necessary if Google’s popularity was based solely on merit. When “nudges” are forced they look an awful lot like coercion and choicelessness.
Snapchat demolished earnings expectations as it added 11 million users in Q3, and daily users are up 18% year-over-year. So What?: Could be a good sign for ad-supported tech firms overall (e.g. Facebook, Twitter) in the months ahead. Raise your expectations.
More governments are investigating digital currency (Spain’s central bank is exploring design proposals, China held a $1.5 million digital yuan giveaway, and Finland’s Chief Central Banker thinks a digital Euro in the next decade is ‘very likely’) as are online payment platforms (Paypal announced that Venmo is going to become a Bitcoin wallet, much like Square). So What?: Crypto acceptance is moving more quickly from fringe to table stakes at a time when the U.S. dollar faces inflation. Right now everyone seems to be reassessing their stance, individual and institutional investors alike.
Artificial Intelligence is everywhere these days. AI for batteries. AI for networks. AI for hearing aids. AI for translation. So What?: If you’re looking to break into an area of tech or pursue a new area of expertise, machine learning and AI would be great to add to the consideration set. And if you’re an investor: follow AI as a category no matter what sectors or industries you track. Unforeseen applications are popping up daily.
Nokia was selected by NASA to build first ever cellular network on the Moon, and Microsoft’s Azure is partnering with SpaceX to build a satellite cloud. So What?: For investors tracking the move to 5G and how that will unlock new opportunities around the globe, satellite firms and tickers are going to be crucial players to keep an eye on.
Mobile video streaming platform Quibi had raised $1.75B and just shut down after a mere 6 months. Meanwhile tech stocks are influencing markets in proportions that eclipse the dot-com bubble peak. So What?: Tech has always been what moves markets, it’s just that our definition of what technology is changes. What we now consider to be legacy industries (e.g. oil, steel) were once the height of human technological achievement. Timing is everything and it’s hard to separate the hype from the revolution, which is why VC’s focus on a large portfolio of bets they can safely lose in order to ride the one winner that can more than pay for the rest.
From the Tweetbox 🐦
🔗 “Every business falls [...] somewhere on the spectrum between real estate and Zoom.”
🔗 The one-sentence marketing MBA: “Your feelings are justified.”
For The Pros 😎
Over 70 quality digital product ideas you can use to start your own business or side income online—no inventory required. (Link available to Pro subscribers)
Identifying stocks that you *shouldn't* buy. “The simple fact that hours have been devoted to investigating an idea can tempt a purchase just to justify the effort.” (Link available to Pro subscribers)
The simple copy trick that one study found results in nearly 40% more clicks on your URLS. (Link available to Pro subscribers)
How did chat platform Discord win their place as the de-facto “third place” online? (Link available to Pro subscribers)
Watch This 👀
You can now use the digital money paid to you by your browser and spend it inside a game built on the blockchain. What a world ✨
Mailbag ✉️
Wherein I read a newsletter and share with you my highlight. Here’s a Bitcoin bear argument, but more importantly a useful reminder for marketers that what most people want is less responsibility, not more:
“Bitcoin thus violates a fundamental tenet of human nature. The majority of Society does not want radical responsibility. The majority of Society wants a scapegoat. They want someone, something to blame for their actions, they will want restitution. They want recourse if something happens. Bitcoin provides none of that.”
Validate Your Biz Idea ✅
I came across this super helpful guide for using Reddit to your advantage when building a new business. It includes everything from researching, writing, getting attention, and engaging with people, plus a spreadsheet template for tracking subs. Highly recommend, and best of all:
🔗 Surf Report subscribers get $5 off with the code: surfreport
Insights 🔎
“We like what we choose. Not the other way around.” (seths.blog) A new study shows that babies’ random choices become their preferences.
🔗 “New demand is expensive to create; new desires are not.”
PNGs 🖼
Founder-led firms outpacing CEO-led ones in market recovery.
Value is personal and sometimes hard to explain:
“The beginnings of all things are small.” —Cicero
Groms 🐣
🔗 Linkedin for college students.
“[Handshake] now covers 17 million job seekers, 1,000 institutions of higher learning and nearly 500,000 employers, with partnerships with some 120 minority-serving institutions, which include Historically Black Colleges and Universities, and Hispanic Serving Institutions in the U.S., to help them and their students better tackle the job-hunting-recruitment market.”
🔗 API for stock trading. (This guy thinks they’re going to be massive.)
“Alpaca is a company that has cropped up in our coverage of the startup and private capital markets recently, adding its perspective to our discussion of API-powered startups and their recent success.”
The former chief executive of Uber Technologies Inc. has been quietly assembling a mini real-estate empire over the past two years, acquiring closed restaurants, auto-body shops and warehouses for use in his new ghost kitchen venture [CloudKitchens].
“Don’t tell me what you think, tell me what you have in your portfolio.” —Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Drop Ins 🏄
My latest investments & trades
Buy & Hold Investments (I will hold these forever)
This section is only available for contributing subscribers. If you’d like to trade and invest along with me, consider one of the paid tiers!
Swing Trades (1-3 month time horizon)
This section is only available for contributing subscribers. If you’d like to trade and invest along with me, consider one of the paid tiers!
Barrels 🎯
Winning trade of the week
Scaled out a little profit from $PYPL for a quick ~10% gain.
Portfolio Highlights
🚀 $TWLO has been such a force of nature I moved my remaining shares from Trading to Buy-and-Hold. Great company.
📈 $BTC broke through $13k. And as usual… I’m buying more! I contributed to my BlockFi account (which lets you earn up to 8.6% APY on your crypto) and continue a weekly recurring buy order in my Cash App.
Pods & Schools 🐬🐠
Book Reco: Big Mistakes: The Best Investors and Their Worst Investments by Michael Batnick.
“I will not abandon a previous approach whose logic I understand even though it may mean foregoing large, and apparently easy, profits to embrace an approach which I don't fully understand, have not practiced successfully and which, possibly, could lead to a substantial permanent loss of capital”
Podcast Reco: Hypefury Presents #10: Lawrence King on how to build an army of fully automated soldiers that earn money for you
Tools of the Trade ⚒
Products I use to make money
Wealthfront. ~25% of my portfolio is in Wealthfront, which since 2016 has netted me a time-weighted return of ~39% (~35% money-weighted) at the time of this writing, all while harvesting tax losses like the pros do.
Use this special link to get your first $5,000 managed for free: https://wlth.fr/2ephpyb
StockCharts. I easily make back the small monthly subscription fee with the superpowers it gives me. If you want to trade smart, you’ll need it.
Carrd. I used it to create markmulvey.com, surfreport.email, and I’m using it now to build websites for paying clients. Use this link or referral code 892PYX69 to start your own web empire.
Cointracker. Track your coins like you track your stocks, complete with all-time return (absolute & percentage) by coin and cost-basis.
Hypefury. I use Twitter to connect with people who eventually become friends, colleagues, and customers. Hypefury is easily the best tool out their for growing a quality Twitter following.
SPONSOR
Sforzo Audace is my own company—lifestyle brand for renaissance men and creator of the Original Renaissance Bag. “One can do much.” Surf Report subscribers get an extra 20% off with the discount code SURFREPORT at checkout. 🔗 Get Yours
(I’m an advocate of ‘being your own sponsor,’ but if you want to advertise on here instead my DMs are open)
Disclaimer
Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.