Surf Report Issue 1 - Free Edition
Fresh perspective on markets and marketing
INTRODUCTION
People say you shouldn’t send emails on weekends. Especially Sundays. Especially Sunday nights. It’s because open rates tend to be the lowest. But we do things differently here.
Today marks the start of something I hope will make you smarter, more valuable, and save you time.
The mission of Surf Report is to transform the way you think about markets & marketing to improve mentally & financially.
I believe the more you learn about stocks and businesses the better you get at starting or running your own portfolio or company, and the more you realize how much it all has to do with reading widely, connecting with people, and understanding emotions.
I started Surf Report because none of newsletters I pay for have the same intersection of topics I spend the most time reading and thinking about:
Living (Philosophy & Perspective) +
Investing (Money & Markets) +
Building (Entrepreneurship & Creativity)
One thing I’ve learned over the past 15 years in the markets: investing, trading, brand-building, and marketing are a lot more fun and profitable when you have the mindset of a surfer.
Surfers live the quintessential “good life” of nonchalance and stoke, but if you spend time with them you learn they run their days much the same way great entrepreneurs, traders, and investors run theirs:
They wake up incredibly early if it means catching a great swell, and don’t expect to spend the whole day in the water
They pore over meteorological reports and study the unique bathymetry of breaks, trying to grasp subtleties in an effort to prepare
They look at daily forecasts religiously, but rely mostly on their intuition and ability to feel the contours of the ever-changing waves, to respond quickly to changes in the moment
They paddle into the same waves that beachgoers fear, to gain a better position from which to drop in and catch a ride
They respect the unpredictability and ferocious power of nature, and don’t try to control—but instead simply ride—the forces at work
They value health, balance, stability when it comes to surfing well and for as long as possible
They try to avoid wipeouts, but understand they will happen and are part of the job
They expect things not to work sometimes, rolling with unfortunate circumstances calmly so as not to get hurt or drown
Most importantly: they do it all for fun.
Don’t worry, I’m not going to pack this newsletter full of surf metaphors. But this type of connection-making is a big part of what I hope makes Surf Report valuable.
So why am I sending this on Sunday night instead of a more “optimal” day and time? It’s not just to be different. I’m doing it because all my mentors use Sunday night to research the markets, gather their thoughts, plan, and prepare the week ahead. What good would a surf report be if you receive it after you needed it?
Thanks again for coming along with me on this. Let’s go.
—Mark
What really frightens and dismays us is not external events themselves, but the way in which we think about them. —Epictetus
Breaking 🌊
Palantir went public. Started 17 years ago by former Paypal execs and one influential Silicon Valley venture capitalist, it’s named after a Lord of the Rings artifact and ended its first day of trading with a history-making $21B market cap. Like Spotify and Slack in years past, Palantir filed as a direct listing—its debut was not an IPO. Direct listing is now becoming increasingly popular because of a recent change by the SEC allowing companies to raise funds without dealing with the hassle of an IPO. Lesson: rules can change in your favor.
Coinbase takes a… non-stand. The CEO of this leading crypto platform announced favoring its mission versus social activism (“taking an apolitical stance”). The company said it would provide employees with a package to leave the firm if they don't feel comfortable with the new direction. Lesson: not taking sides is a side.
Airlines make deep cuts. Airlines began furloughs after government aid ended, as U.S. commercial air travel on Wednesday was down about 70% compared with the same weekday one year ago. Lesson: propping up an economy can buy time but creates new consequences.
Bitcoin discount platform closes shop. “We finally realized HODLers on Twitter were too wealthy to care about saving 15%+ on Amazon.” Lesson: A compelling use case for you may not be a compelling reason to care for your target customer.
Trump got corona and markets temporarily tanked. Apple did not instantly become a less valuable company because the president got sick. But, then again, it absolutely did. Lesson: value can change depending on how people feel.
From the Tweetbox 🐦
“4. Affinity Bias. When investors make irrational decisions because it reflects their values, or they're worried about how others will view them.”
It’s a me!
“Roblox said it had reached more than 115 million monthly active users and more than 1.5 billion hours of monthly engagement.”
Surprising Trend 📊
Interest in learning to skateboard is currently seeing a resurgence and warzones are apparently no exception. The top Google Trend of the week related to the query “learning to” is: learning to skateboard in a warzone
Deep Dive 🤔
Gaming’s Dark Horse. Master the Meta wrote a solid breakdown of Stillfront Group, a new gaming business that has tripled its market cap this year and largely been flying under the industry radar.
It’s essentially a collection of 15 decentralized game studios making “long-lifecycle” games (mainly Strategy, including Sim/RPG & Puzzles—genres that tend to be stickiest and subscription-friendly) across the globe, with a centralized HQ that handles asset allocation & investment strategy (based largely on M&A). This decentralized, multi-region approach lets Stillfront leverage localized insights and target games depending on the market, while letting studios keep their cultures and creative freedom.
Its profits are then reinvested into acquisitions, all of which tend also to make game engines that can be reused. This both reduces game development time and creates a cascade of successive improvement with each release.
Lesson: Recurring revenue & diversification. Stillfront’s advantage comes from its consistency of revenue and diversification of sources, the same strategy recommended by personal finance gurus and advisors. This is why studying large businesses can help even the smallest investors and entrepreneurs.
JPG 🖼
29 Psychological Tricks and Tactics Used to Make People Buy More
The beginnings of all things are small. —Cicero
Groms 🐣
Don’t tell me what you think, tell me what you have in your portfolio. —Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Drop Ins 🏄
My latest investments & trades
Buy & Hold Investments (I will hold these forever)
This section is only available for contributing subscribers. If you’d like to trade and invest along with me, consider one of the paid tiers!
Swing Trades (1-3 month time horizon)
This section is only available for contributing subscribers. If you’d like to trade and invest along with me, consider one of the paid tiers!
Barrels 🎯
Winning trades of the week
Scaled out of $SNAP (Snapchat Inc.) for a ~23% gain
Portfolio Highlights
💪Starbucks increased its dividend by 10% to $.45. Fun fact: the dividends I collect from $SBUX pay for the coffees I buy there
📈📉 Bitcoin’s price continues to hover right below $11k, with the 200-week moving average and consecutive days above $10,000 both at all-time highs 🚀 Lesson: Peak value at a single moment in time is less important information than sustained value over time.
Pods & Schools 🐬🐠
Book Reco: The Almanack of Naval Ravikant. Edited and compiled by Eric Jorgensen, it elegantly compiles all the best wisdom on wealth and happiness from the billionaire Silicon Valley VC/philosopher.
Podcast Reco: Camila Russo—financial journalist, founder of The Defiant, and author of the definitive book on the story of Ethereum—appeared on the Epicenter podcast and provides a lot of great insight along the way: Camila Russo – Laying Bare the Story of Ethereum
Webinar Reco: Resonant is set to host a series of ‘5G Insights’ webinars to talk current state of the technology rollout and what it means for customers.
Tools of the Trade ⚒
Products I use to make money
Wealthfront. ~25% of my portfolio is in Wealthfront, which since 2016 has netted me a time-weighted return of ~34% (~28% money-weighted), all while harvesting tax losses like the pros do. Use this special link to get your first $5,000 managed for free: https://wlth.fr/2ephpyb
StockCharts. I easily make back the small monthly subscription fee with the superpowers it gives me. Get an account at stockcharts.com and tell ‘em markmulvey at gmail sent you. 😉
Carrd. I used it to quickly create both my personal website, markmulvey.com, and the landing page for Surf Report, surfreport.email. I’m also using it now to build websites for paying clients. Use this link or referral code 892PYX69 to start building your own web empire.
Cointracker Track your coins like you track your stocks, complete with all-time return (absolute & percentage) by cryptocurrency and cost-basis.
Hypefury. I use Twitter to connect with people who eventually become friends, colleagues, and customers. Hypefury is easily the best tool out their for growing a quality Twitter following.
SPONSOR
Sforzo Audace is my own company. (I’m an advocate of being your own sponsor, but if you want to advertise on here too just holler 🤙)
I was tired of needing to own different bags for work and weekends, so I created a “renaissance bag”: the one men's everyday carry that dresses up, dresses down, and will never go out of style. It’s half the price of designer brands and gets twice the usage. I bring mine everywhere and keep getting compliments. “One can do much.”
Surf Report subscribers get an extra 20% off with the discount code SURFREPORT at checkout
Disclaimer
Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.